ATHOL – Between factors such as a new presidential administration and changes to interest rates, there’s some uncertainty among new home buyers in the region.

Asked what impact the Trump administration in Washington is having or may have on the North Quabbin real estate market in the coming months, Sara Lyman responded, “That’s a great question. It’s actually something that has been discussed a lot between me and several of my peers all across the country because, whether you’re a fan of Trump or you’re not, he keeps talking about affordability for the American public. The reality is that affordability according to what he’s saying means one thing and what the consumers are hearing is something else.”

Keith McGuirk of Millers River Real Estate in Orange said he doesn’t think the threat of tariffs on lumber or steel are causing hesitancy on the part of people interested in new construction.

“Most of our lumber comes from local sources like Maine and New Hampshire. I don’t see that coming into play very much in the local housing industry,” he said. “It may spur the lumber manufacturers in Maine and New Hampshire and Vermont – and Massachusetts, for that matter – to produce more.”

Lyman pointed out that more people are moving to North Quabbin and western Massachusetts from other areas of the state.

“They’re especially pushing in to Worcester and Franklin counties, the Pioneer Valley, even out into the Berkshires,” she said.

Lyman said the number of homes sales in Athol varied little from 2023 through 2024. In 2023, Athol saw total volume for single-family, multifamily, commercial, condos at 207 units – in 2024, it was 200. In sales of single-family homes, the number sold in Athol in 2023 was 155, and 142 in 2024.

The average cost of a single-family home in Athol rose from about $290,000 in 2023 to $330,000 in 2024, according to Lyman. Year-to-year, that’s an increase of 15%. Just three years ago, she said, the average cost was $235,000.

“We’re at our pricing threshold right now,” she added “until the consumers start to feel more confident moving into the marketplace.”

“If people are financially in very good shape,” said McGuirk, “they could still buy something now, if they can afford to pay the inflated prices we’re involved in now; maybe buy, even at a high interest rate, then refinance later when the rates come down. But they have to be in very good financial shape to do that.”

People who aren’t in great financial shape, said McGuirk, “may not be in a position where they can buy much except a lower-priced house, like under $300,000; and there aren’t many of them in that price range anymore.”

Uncertainty over Federal Reserve action is also among those factors causing hesitation among potential home buyers in 2025, Lyman said.

“It did also last year,” Lyman said.”Coming out of COVID in 2023, we had about 27 million millennials that were about to enter the housing market.”

Many, she said, were hesitant to purchase because they don’t want an 8%, 7%, or 6% interest rate. Meanwhile, Lyman continued, consumers wishing to downsize “are on the sidelines waiting to see what’s going to happen because they’re locked into a 2% or 3% percent interest rate right now and they don’t want to jump up to a 7% rate. That’s causing a lot of volatility.”

McGuirk said many who had obtained low interest had done so in the past five years.

“People who got a mortgage 15 years ago,” he continued, “may still be in the 6% range, but if anybody bought a house or, say, refinanced a house since 2020, they’re probably into one of these 2% mortgages. So, they don’t want to sell because if they did, they’d wind up having to buy something at 6½%. That would be an impediment to putting a house on the market.”

“It seems to be,” said Lyman, “that the new administration and the Fed are really pushing against each other about who’s really in control. Where the rates are going? I think we’re seeing a lot of consumer confidence waver. We’re being told interest rates probably will come down a little bit, but that depends on what happens with inflation. It’s important that buyers look at all of the different lending opportunities.”

“As long as there is some level of inflation,” added McGuirk, “the Fed has to determine whether it’s prudent or not to reduce rates. If there is a level of inflation, and there is, they have said they’re not going to because it’s still too high. People who were expecting a big drop in interest rates back to 2%, that’s never going to happen. Maybe they’ll get to 5%; that’s pretty typical, historically.”

Asked about the confluence of so many factors – demographics, economics, and politics - Lyman said it is tough to predict the direction of the local real estate market.

“I’ve been doing this about 24 years here locally in our community and, over the last five years, I’ve felt I definitely don’t have a crystal ball,” she said.

For his part, McGuirk said he’s looking for an average year when it comes to local real estate transactions.

“It won’t be robust because of interest rates still being high,” he said. “Robust isn’t always good in the long-term. We’ve had five years of robust, and what it’s done is increase the price of a house for an average young couple to where it’s unaffordable.”

Greg Vine can be reached at gvineadn@gmail.com.